Monday, June 22, 2009

Are you looking for a Forex Currency Trading System?

One has to understand what a Forex Currency Trading System is before they start their search. In fact the first question you should ask yourself is what is it you are ultimately looking for? A way to increase or make profit? A more efficient trading platform? A forex trading strategy that works? A software system that will allow you to test and develop your own trading strategies? If you find yourself answering yes to these questions then you should realize that a complete Forex Currency trading System has many components. You may have one part of the whole system and are searching for other parts for a complete Forex Currency Trading System or perhaps get started in developing your own system.

Whatever the case may be, Swiss Capital can help you achieve these goals. From helping you access the right market at the best rates, to increasing your profits by helping you create automated trading and algorithm based execution systems.

Online Forex Trading Platform

Forex Trading Platforms come in all sizes and shapes. Swiss Capital offers its clients two types of trading platforms:

Regular Trading Platform (available in Windows or Java)

*Download instructions for WindowsJava Access

*To access this platform you must have a Demo or a Regular Trading or a Risk Free Trading account

High Frequency Trading Platform (available in Windows only)Download Instructions for Windows

*To access this platform you must have a High Frequency Trading Account

Regular Trading Platform (available in Windows or Java)

*The Regular Trading Application is a combined interface that allows users to monitor the market and engage in online trading. The interface is divided into several functional windows; each window displays information and provides access to specific functions relating to viewing, processing, initiating, and responding to activity on the trading system. The application interface utilizes a standard Windows-style top menu, which provides intuitive access to interface-specific functions, including display styles, reports, communication information, etc.

The ABCs of Forex Trading

What is Forex trading?

Speculative Forex trading is an exciting world with fortunes lost and gained daily, it isn’t for the faint hearted. So what makes forex trading such an exciting endeavor? Forex trading and forex market is as simple as it is complex. Simple in the way how anybody from any part of the world with internet access and a few hundred dollars can trade it; and complex in the way how innumerable factors affect the daily movement of the global currencies. Needless to say if you don’t know what you are doing you can easily get hurt. In fact even seasoned professionals can and do routinely lose money in Forex trading. But what keeps millions of traders, small and large, coming back? It is the simplistic nature of speculative Forex trading in a market place that offers a level playing field for small and large traders alike. You can certainly apply the saying “it takes a couple of weeks to understand but a lifetime to master” in Forex trading.

In Forex trading, you buy and sell currencies-buying the stronger currency against the weak and vice versa. There is no restriction in the order of your transaction, meaning you can sell a currency pair first and buy it later, commonly known as “shorting” (if you think the market will move down before it goes up). Understanding the basics of Forex trading is a must before you venture into the world of currency trading.

Currency Pairing

First, it is best to understand that currency trading in the Forex market is always done in currency pairs. For that matter any time you exchange one thing for another you are dealing in “pairs”. For instance when you buy anything from your local grocer you are exchanging money for the goods and services, and each is valued in relative unit terms to the other (example $1.00 = 1 Orange, so Orange/$ exchange rate is $1.00). So if the Euro is paired with the US Dollar it is coded as EUR/USD or simply how much 1 Euro cost in Dollar. Normally, as far as quoting conventions are concerned, the currency representing greater value, or economic strength historically is used as the “base” currency (or the currency on the left), whose value is given in terms of the “counter currency” (or the currency on the right). As an example, a EUR/USD 1.1100 only means that 1 Euro is equivalent to 1.1100 US Dollar. To buy 1 Euro, you will need 1.1100 US Dollar. Note that the currency rate is normally quoted out to four decimal places (0.0001), with the exception of Japanese YEN and other currencies whose relative values are much smaller, in which case they are quoted out to only two decimal (00.01). The last digit of the quoted currency is known as a “Pip” which is the lowest number by which the currency value moves up or down. This is the standard format in Forex trading.

Basic Practices in Forex Trading

To start in Forex trading, you will need to open an account with an online Forex trading broker. If you have ever traded on margins, forex market offers one of the highest levels of leverage in the financial market place. If you are not familiar with leverage, it is simply a way to amplify your purchasing power. Forex trading firms usually give 1:100 leverage for traders. This means that if you have $1000 dollars in your account, you can trade dollars worth $100,000.

Once you have an account you can simply start your Forex trading by defining your view. You identify based on technical and or fundamental analysis which currency you feel is the strongest and which is the weakest, then you simply buy the strongest against the weakest currency. For instance, if you think that US dollar is weak because of various news and chart patterns that you have observed, and Euro is strongest among other currencies as it has been gaining across the board, you would simply look to buy EUR/USD and wait for it to appreciate. However markets can and do reverse all the time so there is no guarantee that you will profit. The point is to make sure that you understand the basic market dynamics before you make decisions to buy and sell and that will give you the best chance of succeeding.

The spread is another factor that you have to consider, and it is the difference between the buying and the selling price at any give moment. Market makers generally always give you a two way quote, (one price to buy and another to sell). The difference between the buying price or the “Ask” and the selling price or the “Bid” is known as the spread. In Forex trading the spreads importance depends on your trading strategy. If you are a high frequency trader, and trade multiple times in day for short periods of time (also known as a “Daytrading”) then you should look to trade on the narrowest spreads possible, as wide spreads will have a greater impact on your overall profitability. On the other hand if you don’t trade frequently but take positions and keep them for days before exiting then narrow spreads should not be of any real concern.

Forex Trading Strategy

Forex Trading strategies can basically fall into two categories as mentioned above- short term trading (Daytrading high frequency trading,) or mid to long term trading (swing trading, days to weeks)); and if you take positions for longer periods of time then that falls in the category of investing and not trading. Leverage, like the spread, plays an important role depending upon your trading strategy. For day trading, and high frequency trading high leverage is more preferable, whilst for swing trading and as you extend more into investment zone then low to no leverage should be employed. Why? Because as a short term trader, you want to maximize your profits by capturing small movements in the market place. Leverage amplifies market movements, hence your portfolio movements, but in short term trading, you don’t leave your positions open long enough and are more intone with market movement tick by tick, so you are actively managing the risk that is inherent with high leverage. Long term trading does not usually require actively viewing the market tick by tick, hence using high leverage can be fatal for a portfolio as you may not be aware of any sudden sharp movements that along with high leverage can wipe out your portfolio. So in Forex trading it helps to identify your strategy along with the proper levels of leverage and spreads, which will ensure safety of your funds and continued success.

The Rollovers

Spot deals are the most common practice in Forex trading. Due dates of spot deals are two days after the transaction. It means that delivery of what you buy or sell should be done within two working days. However, in the world of speculative forex trading, majority of traders do not take delivery of any currency but instead “roll” their positions forward on the delivery date. This service is normally done by the market maker and does not require you as retail traders to take any action. If the position is left open at the close of Forex trading floor, it will be automatically rolled over to the next transaction date to avoid delivery of the currency. This is to allow the position to be opened and speculate further on the Forex trading market.

Along with rollover comes an interest charge that is either paid to you or charged on your account at the time of rollover (which usually takes place around 5 Pm US Eastern Time). Rollover calculation of interest is based on the current or prevailing interest rates of currencies involved in Forex trading. If you bought a currency and it has a higher overnight interest rate than the paired currency, you will gain interest from the rollover. However, if you sell a currency with a higher overnight interest rate, then you will lose from the rollover and the interest charges will be made against your Forex trading account.

Aside from knowing the basics of Forex trading, it is also best to analyze the market in order to determine the direction the general direction. There are two ways to analyze the Forex trading market. You can use fundamental analysis or technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis vs Technical analysis in Forex trading

These two approaches can be used simultaneously but proponents of the two schools of thought are always in disagreement on what should be the best analytical tool to predict the movement of the Forex trading market. This technical analysis vs. fundamental analysis dichotomy has been the subject of much debate and produced papers and counter-papers. It is better to know the basics of both analytical methods in order for you to choose which one is appropriate for your needs in Forex trading.

Fundamental analysis delves into the intrinsic value of the currency. The intrinsic value is usually the economic fundamentals underlying in the given currency. In countries, the economic fundamentals are the prevailing interest rates, the economic growth rate, the ability to pay foreign obligations, the movement of the currency, and the existing stability of political leadership. If one or many of the mentioned fundamentals suffer a crisis, the fundamental analyst will definitely predict a downslide in the intrinsic value of that country’s currency in Forex trading.

Technical analysis for Forex trading, on the other hand, does not care about economic fundamentals. Analysts using this method rely mainly on statistical probability. They analyze the history and past movements of currencies and predict statistically future movements in the Forex trading floors. It is purely based on mathematical assumptions, which in some way can be pretty accurate. Technical analysis believes that the fundamental of the currency is always reflected on the Forex trading floor at any given moment. The fundamentals essentially are embedded in it. So, there is no need to analyze the economic fundamentals. Instead, the work would be easier if you can make calculations based on past history of the Forex trading floors, its price movements and fluctuations.

Generally speaking, fundamentals impact the overall market direction in the long run while the technical analysis and patterns help determine short term movement in the overall trend.

The FOREX Market, a True Giant!

Don’t Gasp, its a Trillion Dollar Speculative Market

Today, FOREX market is the largest money market in the world. It averages a daily transaction record of more than 3 trillion dollars! The FOREX market volume is 8 times greater than the combined trading volume of all stock exchanges in the world.

Almost 95% of FOREX market trading is speculative in nature. It simply means that traders buy and sell currencies for profit rather than any actual transaction for exchanging goods and services. This is the most exciting aspect of FOREX market as it’s simply offers itself as a place where buyers and sellers and speculate freely on either side (market moving up or down) and make a profit. One can earn in seconds if timing and luck is on their side, however with anything speculative comes the associated risks (please do read our risk disclosure for a better understanding of the associated risks). In successful FOREX market trading applies the very basic principles of making profit, which is you buy low and sell high. With the narrowest spreads (the difference between the buy and sell price) and the lowest costs (generally no commissions or fees) this objective becomes easiest to achieve in the Forex market. The other 5% of FOREX market trades are done for actual transactions and exchange of goods and services and international trade. Only a few decades ago this scenario was reversed, which speaks volumes for the growth and evolution of the Forex Market

The Market that Never Sleeps

FOREX market is open for trading 24 hours a day 5-days a week. The word sleep is practically alien in the FOREX market. The market is always on and you can transact anytime from anywhere in the world (as long as you have phone line and/or an internet connection). The FOREX market opens in Australia followed by Tokyo. When the Japanese market ends, the European side takes over in London and the world FOREX market trading ends in New York. However, when New York is about to close, Australia is ready to begin and the cycle goes on. This pattern can give you enough lee way and flexibility in terms of trading and market monitoring. Of course, you’re not super human to follow the market 24 hours a day. Online FOREX brokers and online currency trading firms are there to monitor the market for you. Additionally, FOREX Trading Software provided by trading currency firms can safely transact for you even when you’re sleeping.

The Major League Players (err… currencies)

The major currencies traded in FOREX market are the US dollar, the Euro, Japanese Yen, the Great Britain Pounds Sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and the Swiss Franc. These national currencies are called the Majors because they are relatively stable and are the most traded instruments in the FOREX market trading floors. Other currencies can be traded also but the majority of transactions in the Spot Currency Trading are done using the Major currencies.
When you trade in FOREX market you will see a bid price and a sell price. The bid is the price where you can sell a currency (against another) or in other words, where a market maker has placed a bid and is willing to buy it from you. The Ask price on the other hand is where you can buy a currency (against another) and in other words, a market maker's asking price where he is willing to buy from you The difference you get between the bid and the ask price is called the spread. So, if the bid price for USD/JPY is 107.91 and the ask price is 107.95 you will have a spread of 0.04. This spread is generally what a market maker makes when dealing with their clients. When FOREX market transactions run into hundred thousands or even million dollars, this .04 spread could be enormous. This spread is miniscule compared to spreads you find in the stock market, however the minimum size for FOREX market transaction are generally a lot higher, normally 100,000 units and multiples thereof. But with advent of retail market makers, smaller market participants can also transact on these spreads at lower transaction sizes. Accounts that trade lower transactions sizes are usually known as “Mini” accounts or “Flexi” accounts, or other derivatives which imply change from the normal transaction size of 100,000 units.

Join the Big Players and Get Bigger Yourself

Today, FOREX Market players are not limited to large financial corporations, multinational banks, and national governments. Even individuals like you could enter the FOREX market and participate in worldwide currency trading phenomena. A smaller pocket size will not necessarily bar you from entering the market and playing with the big boys, as smaller FOREX market participant can enter through the “mini” accounts. Additionally, leverage plays an important role in the FOREX market which allows smaller accounts to transact on larger notional size. Leverage is a double edged sword, which not only increases your propensity to gain but also your propensity to lose. It is this leverage that increases the notional size of the market and the profit and loss that is transferred between participants. FOREX market allows the highest levels of leverage anywhere from 25:1 to all the way to 500:1 or even greater in some instances. Be careful when using leverage and only use high leverage for shorter periods of times.

Romancing the FOREX: A Basic Look at the Foreign Exchange Market

Forex is a global market for trading one national currency against another. In other words, it’s simply the buying and selling of money. The FOREX Currency Trading market however involves practically every national currency available and you do it on a global scale. FOREX is a coined term for Foreign Exchange Market. It is interesting to note though that there is no actual market place or an “exchange” in FOREX market, like you see in the stock market. Trading or the buying and selling of currency are done in a market place that is connected to each other electronically through inter-bank system, or with traders through the internet or via overseas telephone communication. It is this characteristic that makes FOREX the most accessible and liquid market for all levels of participants from around the world. A small trader with $50 generally has the same opportunities as someone with $50 million.A Little Track back in HistoryAlthough the currency exchange has ancient roots, the modern foreign exchange market traces its roots to the time when the Second World War was about to end. The Allied powers consisting of the United States, Great Britain and France seek to stabilize foreign exchange market through the Bretton Woods Accord. The Bretton Woods Agreement in the year of 1944 set the dollar at a rate of 35 USD per ounce of gold, the US dollar was made the common trading instrument and was pegged with other currencies. The foreign exchange rates established in the Bretton Woods Agreement were destabilized in 1971; the US dollar would no longer be exchangeable into gold. The free floating system was mandated which allowed greater freedom for currencies to fluctuate independent of the US dollar. The independent fluctuation provided by the free floating system gave the money market the necessary boost. It made the FOREX fluid and gave greater opportunity for global money traders to transact more profitably.The technology age in the 1980s accelerated the fast growing rate of extending the market for cross border capital movements through European, Asian, and American time zones. Foreign exchange transactions increased from about $70 billion a day to more than $1.5 trillion a day two decades later.

FOREX pairing…can someone please explain currency pairs?

FOREX trading is done in pairs. This is called currency pairing. For example, the US dollar can be paired with Japanese Yen and the code for this FOREX pair is USDJPY (or USD/JPY). These pairings are known as ISO codes (ISO stands for International Organization for Standardization which is a global federation of national standard bodies). The first currency of the pair (also known as the base currency) assumes 1 unit and the second currency (known as the counter currency) will reflect its value in number units of the counter currency (which can be greater or less than 1). For example it can be shown on the FOREX market that the pair USD/JPY has an exchange rate of 107.91. It only means that the 1 unit of US Dollar (the base currency) is equal to107.91 units of Japanese Yen (the counter currency). What does FOREX really represent?

Here is simplistic analogy to explain what a currency is?

Just as you see company value in terms of its share prices, (the share prices reflecting the relative strength and economic well being of a company), the currency is somewhat similar in reflecting the economic strength of a country. Just as you would study a companies balance sheet and its revenues which will ultimately determine the value of its share, a countries balance sheet (balance of payments, GDP etc) reflect the strength of that country and its ultimate reflection in its shares (its currency). It is a simplistic example as there are elements that you would not or could not value when looking at a country, and usually companies can be valued a lot easily. Determining the true value of a currency in relative terms has at best been a fleeting endeavor, hence the speculative growth and a level playing field for small and large participants alike.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Forex trading examples


Example 1:


An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.
The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.
The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.

Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.

Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.

Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.

Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.

As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.

This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.

Example 2:

The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).

The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.

Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.

He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.
Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.

The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.
This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx. USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.

Forex Trading Basics

The global foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world. The 3.2 trillion USD daily turnover dwarfs the combined turnover of all the world's stock and bond markets.
There are many reasons for the popularity of foreign exchange trading, but among the most important are the leverage available, the high liquidity 24 hours a day and the very low dealing costs associated with trading.

Of course many commercial organisations participate purely due to the currency exposures created by their import and export activities, but the main part of the turnover is accounted for by financial institutions. Investing in foreign exchange remains predominantly the domain of the big professional players in the market - funds, banks and brokers. Nevertheless, any investor with the necessary knowledge of the market's functions can benefit from the advantages stated above.

In the following article, we would like to introduce you to some of the basic concepts of foreign exchange trading. If you would like any further information, we suggest that you sign up for a FREE Membership on this website, where you will be able to exchange views with other Forex traders and get answers to any questions you might have.

Important Forex Trading Terms

  • Spread:The spread is the difference between the price that you can sell currency at (Bid) and the price you can buy currency at (Ask). The spread on majors is usually 3 pips under normal market conditions. For more information on the trading conditions at Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your Client Station and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
  • Pips :A pip is the smallest unit by which a cross price quote changes. When trading Forex you will often hear that there is a 3-pip spread when you trade the majors. This spread is revealed when you compare the bid and the ask price, for example EURUSD is quoted at a bid price of 0.9875 and an ask price of 0.9878. The difference is USD 0.0003, which is equal to 3 “pips”.On a contract or position, the value of a pip can easily be calculated. You know that the EURUSD is quoted with four decimals, so all you have to do is cancel out the four zeros on the amount you trade and you will have the value of one pip. Thus, on a EURUSD 100,000 contract, one pip is USD 10. On a USDJPY 100,000 contract, one pip is equal to 1000 yen, because USDJPY is quoted with only two decimals.

Why Trade Forex?

  • 24 hour trade:One of the major advantages of trading Forex is the opportunity to trade 24 hours a day from Sunday evening (20:00 GMT) to Friday evening (22:00 GMT). This gives you a unique opportunity to react instantly to breaking news that is affecting the markets.
  • Superior liquidity:The Forex market is so liquid that there are always buyers and sellers to trade with. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability and narrow spreads. The liquidity comes mainly from banks that provide liquidity to investors, companies, institutions and other currency market players.
  • No commissionsThe fact that Forex is often traded without commissions makes it very attractive as an investment opportunity for investors who want to deal on a frequent basis. Trading the “majors” is also cheaper than trading other cross because of the high level of liquidity. For more information on the trading conditions of Saxo Bank, go to the Account Summary on your SaxoTrader and open the section entitled “Trading Conditions” found in the top right-hand corner of the Account Summary.
  • 100:1 Leverage:Leverage (gearing) enables you to hold a position worth up to 100 times more than your margin deposit. For example, a USD 10,000 deposit can command positions of up to USD 1,000,000 through leverage. You can leverage the first USD 25,000 of your investment up to 100 times and additional collateral up to 50 times.
  • Profit potential in falling markets:Since the market is constantly moving, there are always trading opportunities, whether a currency is strengthening or weakening in relation to another currency. When you trade currencies, they literally work against each other. If the EURUSD declines, for example, it is because the US dollar gets stronger against the euro and vice versa. So, if you think the EURUSD will decline (that is, that the euro will weaken versus the dollar), you would sell EUR now and then later you buy euro back at a lower price. In case that the EURUSD indeed declines, then you can take your profit. The opposite trading scenario would occur if the EURUSD appreciates.

Forward Outrights

For forward outrights, settlement on the value date selected in the trade means that even though the trade itself is carried out immediately, there is a small interest rate calculation left. The interest rate differential doesn't usually affect trade considerations unless you plan on holding a position with a large differential for a long period of time. The interest rate differential varies according to the cross you are trading. On the USDCHF, for example, the interest rate differential is quite small, whereas the differential on NOKJPY is large. This is because if you trade e.g. NOKJPY, you get almost 7% (annual) interest in Norway and close to 0% in Japan. So, if you borrow money in Japan, to finance the trade and buying NOK, you have a positive interest rate differential. This differential has to be calculated and added to your account. You can have both a positive and a negative interest rate differential, so it may work for or against you when you make a trade.

Trading Forex

A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the euro/US dollar, or the GB pound/Japanese yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.

The most important Forex market is the spot market as it has the largest volume. The market is called the spot market because trades are settled immediately, or “on the spot”. In practice this means two banking days.

Overview

Foreign exchange, Forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The Forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 3 trillion every day. Most Forex trading is speculative, with only a low percentage of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.

Unlike trading on the stock market, the Forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the Forex market is a 24-hour market.

Foreign Exchange



This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.
As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

FX Trading And Analysis

I've become a little frustrated with most of news sources out there. If you've been an active forex trader for any length of time you'll notice that talking heads are always trying to tell you why something happened.That's really nice, and might possibly help you learn about various financial interactions, but it's absolutely useless from a trading point of view. If you are trading you need to figure out what's going to happen -- not what just happened. Check out this video (complete with atrociously low audio levels).

This type of analysis is unlikely to help you with your fx trading tomorrow. Generally, how the markets will move tomorrow, based on tomorrow's news, is not something you'll get from any of the gurus and talking heads.On the other hand useful analysis will be too slow to be meaningful. For example, I'm very confident the world economy will eventually recover. When that happens we'll have a period of high interest rates as rising commodity prices drive inflation. Guess what? This will mean that carry trades pairs will end up at much higher prices. Unfortunately, I can't tell you when the world is going to focus on this. Generally, not before the money moves from wherever it is to wherever it is finally going to end up.The closest thing to predictive analysis, or something you can really use to drive your forex trades, is technical analysis. Charting. Something which gets very little respect in some circles. Many people don't understand it and many others discount it because it isn't able to make perfectly accurate predictions. Technical analysis does not have to be a perfect tool for prediction. It merely has to increase the odds that your fx positions end up earning you a profit.

Friday Forex Recap

This has by far been my best trading week...I might have made more in the past but it was admittedly just hit and miss combined with patience. This last week I've been following technical indicators and doing more than just hope for the best at Bollinger boundaries.

Sunday PM through Monday PM -- NAV +3.05%
Tuesday AM through Tuesday PM -- NAV +2.93%
Wednesday AM through Wednesday PM -- NAV +8.2%
Thursday AM through Thursday PM -- NAV +3.9%
Friday AM through Friday PM -- NAV +1.1%

During the business day I've been able to take positions for hours at a time and generally end up ahead. In the evenings the market seems to slow down, but I am now generally able to scalp out dollars using the 1m and 5m in concert.Additionally, when I am behind in a day trade or a scalping position I am often able to spot a good reversal point and take advantage of that with a second position. Doing this a few times can earn back the losses on the original trade -- assuming it still appears to be a good idea to hold onto it.Some things I've realized this week:
I now understand what people mean when they talk about not trading on Sunday or Friday. Now that I can begin to get a feel for the market I noticed that movement and opportunity were lacklustre during these periods.
I can scalp! This is awesome. It's powerful to be able to scratch pips out of the markets whether they are rising or falling. It's nice to know I can do this if I have a position I want to hold but that is making me nervous as it accumulates a loss before the expected move.
I don't know if these results will now be typical for me or not, but I do finally understand that it isn't impossible to work the markets and earn money.
As well, I understand that I don't want to be trading around news events. If I'm carefully looking for technical setups, the last thing I want is some huge sudden movement due to news. Not only will this potentially catch me on the wrong side of a trade, but it may throw off my ability to analyze things for a whileI should note that my net asset value increases are not compounded. I do skim off most of the gains and push them into a much less risky sub-account. I have no idea whether or not I can trade with the same style when the numbers get bigger. The psychology of seeing larger losses mounting, or higher gains accrue, may throw off my style and keep me from making any money.

Forex Scalping Information

Okay, I've been trying to find information on forex scalping and the pickings are mightly slim indeed. In fact, the so-called information on the net is so bad I'm going to write up a small post of my own... because I'm sure if you found this page you are desperately looking for some real information.

What Is Scalping?Quite simply, very short term trading.Why Don't Brokers Like Scalping?Well, some brokers don't like scalping because of how they are set up. If they are not able to execute your trades quickly or efficiently enough then they risk being the source of your profits.Does Scalping Work?I've seen some people claiming that it works great as well as others claiming that it is impossible to do profitably. The reality is that if you can predict the direction that an equity pair will move, either up or down, then you can hop into the market and grab a few pips when it happens.How Easy Is It To Predict Equity Pair Price Changes?Well, that's the million dollar question! I don't have any books to sell or anything, but a lot of people claim to have solutions for you. Personally, I think if they really had solutions that worked they wouldn't waste time telling you about it, they'd be busy trading. However, in an effort to be informative, when you spend enough time watching a market (which is quite boring) you'll get a feel for it's current state and how it is moving. Often, until conditions change, you can be fairly accurate with your predictions.Can Anyone Do This?If you find a market maker that doesn't mind scalping, you can try. However, you must know how to place stop and limit orders with their trading platform. In particular, it would be very nice if you were able to have someting known as a trailing stop. As well you will want to understand the concept of leverage as it applies to a forex account. Basically, I'd suggest throwing $100 at a starter account and playing around, carefully, until you've made enough bad decisions to learn how things work. After that, you should have the tools needed to try out various strategies.How Much Effort Is It?Scalping is very time consuming. You have to spend a lot of time watching the markets, to the point that it would be difficult to do well if you had an existing full time job. Also, scalping is very demanding from a psychological point of view, as you will have large amounts of your capital ready to put into play, but you may have to wait hours before you spot a good entry point. Then, upon entry, you might find you are back out with a small loss in no time. Alternately, you might get a small profit, take it, and then watch the market skyrocket after your exit. The shorter your trading is the more attention it will take and the more nerve wracking it will be.Are You Scalping?I'm thinking about it. I've been opening up a grid strategy to catch swing trades, but I have noticed that using half of the scalping mentality to accumulate positions in trends may be able to have a significant positive impact on my results. I guess I'll end up letting you know how things work out.

Getting A Forex Education - Forex Books

How many of us in the Forex market simply jumped in the market and started trading? I know that was my path. I tossed a few dollars in an account and figured losing it would be a paid lesson in how the markets work.I can't say that this hasn't been a valuable path. I've learned some good lessons along the way:

it's important to let go of losses early so you have enough capital to sink your teeth into an opportunity that does work.
No indicator or strategy has all the answers -- stop looking for the holy grail of trading
The market can easily whipsaw you to tears if you aren't careful
If you place close stops they will often be taken out before the market goes your wayReally, the list of anecdotal learning is endless and difficult to put into words. However, I recognize that this isn't enough to make me a successful trader, though from time to time I'm starting to taste success. It's finally time for me to bite the bullet and learn more about trading.No, don't worry, I'm not going to buy some stupid multi-thousand dollar Forex training course. That would be stupid. Forex trading is very related to trading in general and there is no shortage of information on either subject. To make a long story short I've purchased four books recently:
Currency Trading for Dummies
Swing Trading for Dummies
The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading
Technical Analysis for DummiesAll of these were available at a nearby bookstore -- so I didn't have to order something online and wait for delivery.More importantly, let me list the credentials of the authors of the above books. Respectively, they are:
Mark Gallant: Chairman and founder, GAIN Capital Group. Brian Dolan: Chief currency strategist, FOREX.com
Omar Bassal, Head of Asset Management, NBK Capital
Jared Marinez, FXCHIEF and founder of The Market Traders Institute, Inc.
Barbara Rockefeller, International economist and traderMy advice? Never, ever, fail to look for the ideas of experts. Even if you don't agree with everything they say, which is appropriate, they should be able to increase your understanding and improve your own thinking.I've had some days with a NAV appreciation of 10%, 20% or more. I'd like to have a lot more days like that... and I don't think that online sources created for the purpose of flogging affiliate commissions will do that for me.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

GBP/USD

U.S. dollar appreciation marked the first Asian session of the current week, the price tested the lower limit of the upward trend which is in favor of the British pound. Passing trend line and a new rise in sterling will direct quotes in opposition to 1.5352, which in the case of a deal will enable the test in the area of the key level at 1.5475. In return option, however, hold the price in periods 7 and 14 MA and move into the lower limit of the upward channel will direct traffic to support 1.5067 and 1.4940 in the case of overcoming the first.

USD/CHF

The currency pair is trading near support at 1.0920, which in the case of endurance will allow for new growth of green money and will activate the double bottom formation with targets resistance at 1.0928 and 1.1057. In the opposite option, passing the price back below 1.0920 will direct the daily traffic to support 1.0805.

GBP/USD


U.S. dollar appreciation against the register pound in Asian session, after the end of U.S. session yesterday, the currency pair recorded its highest value since November. New growth of sterling will aim at overcoming the top 1.6080 and the test area at levels around 1.6490. In the opposite option, a new appreciation of the U.S. dollar will direct the daily movement in support to 1.5775.

USD/JPY

U.S. dollar rise in price by almost one cent against the Japanese currency during the Asian session, as the expectation is directed to test resistance at 96.70, in the case of addressing, the path to the next key level to 97.80 will be opened. In the opposite option, move in the direction favorable to the yen will give support to the daily movement in 95.50.

Daily Technical Analysis 28.05.2009

U.S. dollar continued to man in the Asian session, as we expect to maintain and test the downward movement of price in the area of support at 1.3722, which now appears stable enough to reduce a significant growth of green money. In support of the estimates appear to fall down values of stochastic indicator and MACD. In the opposite option, enhancing the confidence of traders in the green money will direct cost to resisting 1.3860 and 1.4050..

Thursday, June 4, 2009

How to Invest in a Managed Forex Fund

Quite candidly, making an investment in a managed Forex fund isn't the type of solution that most of us are looking out for when we speak of giant profits in the FX market. What happens when you become a stockholder in a managed Forex fund is that you deposit a specific amount of money inside a brokerage account, which will then be managed only either by two brokers or revolving brokers, relying on the situation. There are some upsides as well as drawbacks when having a look at managed Forex funds. One of the upsides is the easy fact that you do not need to do anything to manipulate your own investments - all the investments are done for you and done on the advice of the boss, so you know you are getting solid investment decisions with your hard earned money. Whilst nothing is absolutely assured, masses of speculators have been going into multiple managed accounts as they are unable or not keen to trade adequately for themselves - or because they have no time to sit out front of the computer, handling the trading platform and system and making investment calls. For one, you aren't in control of your cash and that in itself is a big risk.

They may show you all sort of safety precautions and a track record that has lists many years of successfully performance, but there's no such thing as a sure bet - even with managed accounts. You are surrendering the destiny of thousands of dollars to an independent managed Forex fund, who you hope will do a good job at managed your investments. Also, there's an amount of dilution because you are never sure if your account is given the type of attention you need. On the other hand, many managed Forex funds now use PAMM systems to make sure that all of their clients are given precisely the same allocations, which lessens this concern.

Another concern is the level of charges charged to your account. You need to also ensure that the main fee that they are making profits from is the performance fee, which you only pay to them if they make you money. You always must remember that managed Forex funds exist as a way to try to profit for themselves from your investment. If things go well, you both earn cash ; if things go bad, only you loss money. Still, for backers looking to make significant returns, that are typically not correlated to the stock exchanges, managed Forex funds are a cool place to invest some of your capital. Just make efforts to pick a good one, and know that any real fund will have its swings and roundabouts, and that if performance seems to good to be true, it doubtless is.

The Real Million Dollar Question - Will These Forex Robots Actually Work?

The amount of money traded in the Forex each day has reached unbelievable levels and as you would expect many companies have entered the fray with products and tools designed to help you and I, traders, make more cash.

Even if today is your first day looking at the Forex market and you're trying to decide whether or not to get involved, I am certain you've seen dozens of ads for automated trading robots.

Forex trading robots as claimed by their creators and marketers, can monitor the Forex market for fluctuations and act automatically to these changes making trades which make their owners lots of money. Many of these companies claim that their robots can make you money automatically even while you sleep or are on vacation.

What makes these automated robots tick? Exactly how is it they know when to buy, when to sell, or just as important, when to simply do nothing? In a nutshell, Forex robots are designed to monitor fluctuations in currency price and then when certain market conditions are met, they automatically, in many cases, make trades. These "market conditions" are set by the robots owner (you or me) based on several factors including aversion to risk or lack thereof.

Moving forward in the process, once a position has been purchased and established, the robot will then sell that position in an attempt to make it's owner as much profit as possible. The selling point, particularly to newer traders is that the robot can be set up to trade on its own and make a profit with very little downside risk.

Can these robots really make money on auto-pilot as advertised?

My quick answer is no. There are so many factors that drive fluctuations in currency prices that even the most intricate Forex robots can't realistically be expected to make the correct decisions concerning profitability 100% of the time.

Having said that, Forex robots can be and are a very valuable trading tool. They can make turning a profit in the Forex market far easier and can make your learning curve a lot shorter. In my opinion and in my experience, a newer trader will find that achieving profitability is far easier with a robot's guidance than if they try to trade without it. These auto-bots should be monitored and have to be set up correctly to ensure that they make profitable decisions the majority of the time. Follow the instructions carefully and read as much as possible regarding set-up parameters before beginning live trading with real money.

Traders should use Forex robots as tools to simplify their decision making but it is the trader who ultimately should make the decision. Forex robots can be very powerful tools when used in this manner. It is usually when beginner traders take the mindset that they can automatically start making you money without any monitoring or safe guards that problems can arise.

A new trader should research their purchase before buying any tool. As with any product in virtually any market, there are some products that are scams and others which are legitimate and work as advertised, so do your homework.

Whatever Forex trading tool you decide to purchase and use, please keep in mind that it is not the tool but how you use it that will determine your profitability.

Currency Trading in the Forex market is one of the hottest topics online today.

Currency Forex Online Trading product reviews and consumer feedback is a great resource for comparing Forex trading platforms and automated robotic software. Compare features and pricing and read actual consumer reviews. Make an informed buying decision.

Learn about forex strategy

As tremendously we would like to predict the stock market movement correctly, this cannot be done with such precision. A lot of algorithms must be moved into account before formulating the desired fluctuations that will bring all the green luck in your fund portfolios.

Gradually, more and more experts have started to share their own unique strategies when it comes to investments and trading. An essential forex strategy will always come in handy for any prospective investor, so as not to lose a lot of their investments.

As a person who is just starting out in the stock industry, it is critical to know what right forex strategy to employ at every opportunity. Without the right techniques and knowledge, profits can be put in incredible risk and may let you lose a lot of hard-earned money. If you are worried about these possibilities, we have some of the most vital strategies that will help you make the most out of every investment.

The Simple Moving Average or SMA is one of the most basic strategies when it comes to foreign exchange. Every period indicated in the stock market holds fifteen minutes that can be used to your advantage.

With this forex strategy or plan in place, you can mark the signal should there be any major changes in the currency of your choice. Once the currency hits way below the twelve period, you will be signaled the opposite so as to get a clear view of a “Stop and Reverse”.

Candlestick pattern trading can also provide you with a lot of profitable opportunities in just a span of thirty minutes. This type of forex strategy is one of the most reliable mechanisms used in stock trading. The patterns will be able to recognize exactly what direction the currency is most likely to follow.

This action will prompt you to make the right allocations should your funds be at risk during fluctuation. The price levels are also estimated for specific currencies and will aid in determining the lowest points that will create the most formidable patterns for your investments.

With the right schemes in play, you can be assured that you will make the most of the money you have invested during trading. There an assortment of plans that can be applied for every Forex trading strategy, however it is always best to know which one is the right technique to use for every situation.

EUR

The pre-planned short positions from the key resistance range have been realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having marked the feature of bullish incompletion with general activity parity of both parties gives grounds to presume further rate rise to the boundaries of Ichimoku cloud at 1.3220/40, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3160/80, 1.3080/1.3100 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3020/40, 1.2940/60, 1.2820/60. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.3360 with the targets 1.3400/20, 1.3460/80, 1.3540/80.

JPY

Low parties' activity as a result of previous trading day did not bring in any changes to earlier opened short positions. Hence as before because of presumptions about further range movement of the rate for opened sells the targets will be 99.60/80, 99.00/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 98.40/60, 97.80/98.00, 97.00/40. An alternative for buyers will be above 100.80 with the targets 101.20/40, 101.80/102.00.

GBP


Low activity of the parties as a result of previous trading day did not bring in any changes to earlier composed trading plans. As before without any priorities of planning direction choice and presumptions about possible range movement of the rate, we assume a possibility of test of upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud at 1.4720/40, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be will be 1.4640/60, 1.4580/1.4600 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4520/40, 1.4460/80, 1.4380/1.4400. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.4810 with the targets 1.4860/80, 1.4940/60, 1.5000/20.

Forex Technical Analysis

The pre-planned buyers' positions from the key supports have been realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having generally marked the feature of incompletion of bearish activity does not give grounds to make a firm choice of planning priorities for today. Hence and because of presumptions about possible range movement of the rate, we assume a possibility of another test of the nearest supports 1.1500/20, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buyers' positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.1560/80, 1.1620/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.1680/1.1700, 1.1760/80, 1.1820/40. An alternative for sells will be below 1.1460 with the targets 1.1400/20, 1.1320/40, 1.1240/60.

Forex Trading Strategies

Reviews of forex trading systems and strategies: locate the top forex trading systems and find out what criteria separates good forex systems from the poor ones - find a profitable. Trading strategies - sigma forex online forex trading currency sigma forex online broker is a launching pad for people, wishing to use advanced forex trading strategies that lead to profitable trades. Finally: powerful forex trading strategies which work forex.com - the site for forex trading online currency trading w/ real time execution forex mini accounts from $250 free forex charts & quotes forex training registered fcm. Forex forex trading currency trading forex trading strategies for the trader with a medium term time horizon. Forex.com > learn > local events > local workshops > half-day to attend strategies in forex trading free of charge, you must be a forex.com client with a minimum balance of $5000 learn the same strategies used by professional traders around.

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Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Retail forex

In financial markets, the retail forex (retail off-exchange currency trading or retail FX) market is a subset of the larger foreign exchange market. This "market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to The New York Times[1]. Whilst there may be a number of fully regulated, reputable international companies that provide a highly transparent and honest service, it's commonly thought that about 90% of all retail FX traders lose money. [2] [3]

It is now possible to trade cash FX, or forex (short for Foreign Exchange (FX)) or currencies around the clock with hundreds of foreign exchange brokers through trading platforms. The reason that the business is so profitable is because in many cases brokers are taking the opposite side of the trade, and therefore turning client capital directly into broker profit as the average account loses money. Some brokers provide a matching service, charging a commission instead of taking the opposite site of the trade and "netting the spread", as it is referred to within the forex "industry."

Recently forex brokers have become increasingly regulated. Minimum capital requirements of US$20m now apply in the US, as well as stringent requirements now in Germany and the United Kingdom. Switzlerand now requires forex brokers to become a bank before conducting fx brokerage business from Switzerland.[citation needed]

Algorythmic or machine based formula trading has become increasingly popular in the FX market,with a number of popular packages allowing the customer to program his own studies.

The most traded of the "major" currencies is the pair known as the EUR/USD, due to its size, median volatility and relatively low "spread", referring to the difference between the bid and the ask price. This is usually measured in "pips", normally 1/100 of a full point.[citation needed]
According to the October 2008 issue of e-Forex Magazine, the retail FX market is seeing continued explosive growth despite, and perhaps because of, losses in other markets like global equities in 2008.

Currency Pairs

Currency prices can only fluctuate relative to another currency, so they are traded in pairs. Two of the most common currency pairs are the EUR/USD (the price of US dollars quoted in euros) and the GBP/USD (the price of US dollars quoted in British pounds).

High Leverage

The idea of margin (leverage) and floating loss is another important trading concept and is perhaps best understood using an example. Most retail Forex market makers permit 100:1 leverage, but also, crucially, require you to have a certain amount of money in your account to protect against a critical loss point. For example, if a $100,000 position is held in EUR/USD on 100:1 leverage, the trader has to put up $1,000 to control the position. However, in the event of a declining value of your positions, Forex market makers, mindful of the fast nature of forex price swings and the amplifying effect of leverage, typically do not allow their traders to go negative and make up the difference at a later date. In order to make sure the trader does not lose more money than is held in the account, forex market makers typically employ automatic systems to close out positions when clients run out of margin (the amount of money in their account not tied to a position). If the trader has $2,000 in his account, and he is buying a $100,000 lot of EUR/USD, he has $1,000 of his $2,000 tied up in margin, with $1,000 left to allow his position to fluctuate downward without being closed out.

Typically a trader's retail forex platform will show him three important numbers associated with his account: his balance, his equity, and his margin remaining. If trader X has two positions: $100,000 long (buy) in EUR/USD, and $100,000 short (sell) in GBP/USD, and he has $10,000 in his account, his positions would look as follows: Because of the 100:1 leverage, it took him $1,000 to control each position. This means that he has used up $2,000 in his margin, out of a $10,000 account, and thus he has $8,000 of margin still available. With this margin, he can either take more positions or keep the margin relatively high to allow his current positions to be maintained in the event of downturns. If the client chooses to open a new position of $100,000, this will again take another $1,000 of his margin, leaving $7,000. He will have used up $3,000 inmargin among the three positions. The other way margin will decrease is if the positions he currently has open lose money. If one of his 3 positions of $100,000 decrease by $5,000 in value (which is fairly common), he now has, of his original $7,000 in margin, only $2,000 left.[original research?]

If you have a $10,000 account and only open one $100,000 position, this has committed only $1,000 of your money plus you must maintain $1,000 in margin. While this leaves $9,000 free in your account, it is possible to lose almost all of it if the speculation loses money.[original research?]

Market participants

Unlike a stock market, where all participants have access to the same prices, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest investment banking firms. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask prices widens (from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips for some currencies such as the EUR). This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are determined by the size of the “line” (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller investment banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail FX-metal market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size” Central banks also participate in the foreign exchange market to align currencies to their economic needs.

Automated Forex Trading

Are you a disciplined individual? According to expert Forex traders, the only ones who succeed in the Forex market are those people who stay disciplined despite their success or failure. Automated Forex trading has changed the way traders make their transactions. If you’re a savvy Forex trader, you can definitely benefit from using these automated systems.

For beginners in the Forex trade, be warned that most of the trading systems sold or offered online are considered junk and useless. Oftentimes, these systems provide tested simulations and cleverly hyped marketing strategies that do not work. By using ‘junk’ trading systems, you can lose your investment.

There are simple trading systems offered online which can yield higher returns when used properly and consistently. The simpler the automated trading system, the easier it is to use; you see, complicated systems do not guarantee success at all times so be very careful when choosing the appropriate Forex system.

For example, if you think that a certain currency is going to maintain four weeks high standing, buy it. If you have a low-standing currency, you can sell it before the price goes down further. This system is also called breakout wherein all your moves within the Forex market is based on the highs and lows. Soon, you will be able to penetrate the market’s big trends.
Big trends usually last for several weeks, months, or even years. Take a look at the Forex chart and study it. The whole system is automatic and the rules are quite objective. This system is also known as a Forex robot and it can operate fifteen minutes everyday. The creator of this Forex robot was Richard Donchian, a Forex trader.

If you want a simple system, the Forex robot may work for you. Traders who prefer complex trading systems often expect more from this system and so they would rather opt for another system which can meet their expectations. The Forex robot is not fussy and it can help you in identifying the top picks and the bottom picks.

Successful Forex traders spend enough time and effort to make informed trading decisions. As a wise trader, you should not rush things. Allow the system to work. Don’t believe in the myth that complex and expensive systems are more efficient. If you’re serious in Forex trading, you can earn lots of profits with minimal effort.

Observe today’s market trends. If you think that the Forex robot will work for you, considering the existing trends in the Forex market, you can use it because it is logical, very simple, and continuously works. the automated trading system can be obtained for free online just case you want to see how it works. If you think that the Forex robot is another junk like all other systems, check its background. Try to review ratings and testimonials to find out more about this excellent and efficient system.

The modern world is very different from that of long ago. Many of today’s basic tasks are now handled automatically. If you want an automated Forex system, you can make use of the Forex robot. Hurry and look for this system online; if you want, you can also check Richard Donchian to find more info about it. You will greatly benefit from this system over the long run. Don’t overexert yourself in studying the Forex market because with the aid of the automated system, you can go a long way.